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Stewart is desperate but also really bad against submissions, which is Spicely's strong suit. I wouldn't be surprised at all to see Spicely fuck this up, but the odds do kind of make sense.
Till looked like hot garbage yesterday, garbage today, and as the other guy said has another weight restriction on him. He notoriously comes in very large so I think all of this is super detrimental to him. Till has to stay under until 1pm tomorrow.
Can anyone recommend a good sportsbook site for MMA betting that uses bitcoin? I use Nitrogensports but it offers no props. All props, live betting, best lines. Just don't deposit with a credit card. BetOnline has also been great lately in terms of lines as well. The lines are only open in between rounds, and they also change fast when action comes in.
They are winner ML bets and often also "will fight go the distance or not" bets as well. They are generally only for the main event on smaller cards, but bigger events have live lines for both prelims and main event cards.
I haven't caught fight pass prelims in over a year, so I'm not sure if they offer live lines for those. Yes, no one comes close to 5Dimes, their selection of mma props is pretty mind blowing compared to other sites. Bovada still has Magny vs Gunnar up still lol. Doesn't matter if you bet on them it will just be No Action. Was waiting to take Thompson right before the fight predicting he would be around 2.
Even if Till is as good as he thinks he is I don't see how he is going to consistently close the distance and land on Thompson. Majorly concerning for Thompson bettors considering the record this year of fighters who missed weight and the bigger size advantage Till will have if the fight goes ahead.
As a guy with a bet on Thompson, I'm praying he declines. Can't get inside his head. On one hand he is a pretty decent guy of high morals and will be disgusted with Till and not want to accept the fight, on the other hand he will be thinking of the fans and not want to ruin the event. The main event is still on with the stipulation that Till has to weigh in a 1pm tomorrow and cannot be over If he actually makes that weight, I can't see him being in too great of shape come fight time.
The 1pm thing is massive for betting on this fight. The dude cuts from and now has to stay there without rehydrating. He doesnt cut from He might be close to that when he's not competing, but he's not even over pounds in camp.
It's not majorly concerning, Till looked like death on the scales. I don't like that till missed weight as a Thompson bettor, but I have to agree at least on this. Till did not look healthy. The best case for Till is that he is indeed a super talent and lives up to the hype. In that case the number one ranked Thompson is going to provide a very close battle. On the feet his technique is unmatched and ability to stay off the fence and control distance makes it difficult for any striker to look dominant.
It is very unlikely Till will simply walk through Thompson. The much more likely scenario is that this is too much too soon for the youngster. In this case Thompson will look dominant as he brings a style Till has not come close to dealing with. Furthermore the 5 rounds will greatly favour Thompson, whereas Till has looked to slow past round 2 in several of his previous bouts.
Huge hometown money has come in on Till giving us an underdog price on the top ranked fighter of the division. It is not often you get the chance to fade the hype at such a great price. For this reason a large 4 unit bet has been recommended. Look for Till to struggle with the tricky distance of Thompson and get frustrated with his lack of success.
His limited striking options could mean he looks very predictable once figured out. Find the full breakdown and more bets at mmabetmachine. All our picks are third party tracked. Why is Smith at 4? Is he really that bad? I remember Theodoru looking like shit against Kelly, he kicks like a fking pussy if u could even call that thing a kick. Smith is an abysmal striker and Theodorou's boxercise point fighting does win him decisions, but Smith was also an all American wrestler top 8 nationwide in your weight division so is strong on the ground.
The bookies clearly have a lot of belief in Theodorou's takedown defense because Smith usually takes kickboxers into deep water and drowns them. In terms of Smith's many UFC losses, he's struggled against other wrestlers because he loses the advantage he has in wrestling and his striking sucks.
He's also been a tad chinny in this regard, although I highly doubt Theodorou would be going for the knockout. I personally don't think Smith should be anywhere near as much of an underdog as he is here, but it is also my first week actually watching tape the week of the fight so I'd listen to anyone else's thoughts on this too to get a full picture.
Whatever site you're using is ripping you off big time man. I used the odds using the www. Can we try to do better than last card guys??? LOL the most popular picks on here last card all lost.
I tailed with 3 plays that were pretty popular on here and went Just telling the truth. Some events I tail people and do decent.
Last card was not this subreddit's best performance. I just found this sub few days ago, so i made all the betting decisions without any outside input, but last UFC card was one of the worst cards for me personally in years , so i believe it was just a tough card to bet on.
Agree on Silva winning, would love to see a sick armbar from him! Who knows, he might have improved his standing game. Anyone who isn't on Till is a lunatic. Wonderboy is getting older. It's time for new blood. Darren Till is in his hometown, fighting in front of a frantic U. Look at my post history. Everyone who questions me ends up regretting than never responding. You really going to gloat when he was gifted the decision by hometown judges. Go look at the media scores mate. It's really close either way.
I would not take Wonderboy at this point because of how he fought Woodly. He just has not been impressive for a while now and is more concerned about countering than bringing his own offense. Thompson had not had a finish since early against a fallen off Johny Hendricks.
He looks great against masvidal IMO. There are levels to this game. Ngannou was the younger fighter, hyper aggressive, granite chin and an absolute animal that hit like a truck and walked around over lbs.
Stipe is getting older, it's time for new blood. You lost 5 units last week You're fluffing your record.. Lol that's pretty fucking sad. Just started tracking ROI and realized I didn't count a loss. Just recalucted and it's I just started tracking ROI because you convinced me and not sure I'm doing it right.
Is there a way I could go back and track units on my old plays? You post your bets in units. Why not just figure it up in terms of unit's won and then it would be easy to calculate your ROI. It's ridiculously stupid trying to "look cool" on here, yet having losing picks and changing your ROI incorrectly.
In the end all we're all trying to do is win money and discuss UFC plays Guess this is a 1st round KO lol. No way Till should be the favorite, he's a killer but Wonderboy is a fighter of a different dimension.
As my boy DC said, there's levels to this shit and saturday night you're going to find out: I just keep playing back Woodley Thompson 2, when Woodley almost finished Thompson against the cage and see Till being able to get that same pressure. Add in that he's on joke turf looking to make a statement and who knows, crazier things have happened. WB has fought the absolute who's who of the division and never been finished. And Woodley probably hits harder in a single-shot sense. Till's a better striker, but Woodley's straight right is serious.
Wonderboy has not finished anyone good recently. Not saying he won't but just something to think about. And then you say WAY better? This is of course ignoring Wonderboy by sub but I dont think thats what you mean.
Seriously, who are these people betting on Till, and why do they want to give their money to me so badly? Most sites had this correct when WB opened up near Stranger things have happened but Thompson absolutely should be the favorite to win here. Not to mention Thompson is a heavy counter puncher and is going against a lesser opponent who appears to intend to headhunt.
The line movement reminds me of McGregor Mayweather. I jumped on Mayweather the day the line was announced and couldn't believe his odds got better as the days went by. I think I bet on Mayweather like 8 times thinking the odds couldn't get better. Then be better be a better fighter than Woodley, because Thompson doesn't come in aggressively generally. Look at what happened in both Woodley fights. Man i put on Thompson. And if Till knocks him out, I will never doubt him again.
I just feel that Thompson's counter punching is gonna catch Till. Thompson is about as elite as it gets. Thomson is the real deal of course. He seems legit and he has went thru so much in life. Even if he loses, he will learn and grow from this. But this is a big opportunity for him and he will take it. Thomson is already 35 and might have lost the hunger.
Of course I feel you brother. I just can't pass up the opportunity of getting 1 to 1 value on Thompson vs Till. But there is way too much value on Thompson to pass up the opportunity. I also have on wonderboy and I consider myself a successful ufc better lol. Till's got lots of hype and Wonderboy not so much recently. For them its instinctual.
Sorry for the terrible formatting, I tried to use the new formatter on "New Reddit" and it obviously didn't work right. Not going to go back and redo it all, I'll just go back to the old school way of posting next time. For favorites, bet to win the units listed next to my picks.
For underdogs, risk the units listed. If you are tailing, be sure to check back for add-ons minutes before the start of each fight on the card. There is a lot of bad money coming in on Till. This is very similar to Stipe-Ngannou. I have my bet from a month or so back on Wonderboy , and even at that price the value was insane. The narrative of Till being this gigantic welterweight is largely misguided -- he looked massive against Cowboy because Cowboy is a natural lightweight, and Till's post-fight speech about how he's a LHW fighting at WW only fueled that narrative.
Thompson is similar to Till in size and actually has the reach advantage by an inch. Till only looked so good in the Cowboy fight because Cowboy basically let Till do whatever he wanted to him, backing him against the cage and teeing off.
If Till comes out uber-agressive trying to finish Wonderboy, I'm fairly certain he'll get his own lights put out. Scoring Wonderboy bet as a push for record keeping purposes. That was a robbery. Why are you scoring wonderboy as a push? That's not being honest with your record bro come on. Lots of people here had him no need to just disregard what you bet.
It was an egregious robbery. If I'm going to get fucked out of my real money, I'm at least going to keep my record here right. That makes no sense to me tbh man. You're one of the better cappers here. Be better than the trash that pad their records here. It was a close fight but he lost. Lots of people here had that prediction so it seems silly to pretend it didnt happen and imo ruins your reputation here. Win it back next week. No use lying because if anybody failed you they won't magically get their money back lol.
Call me crazy but i think Thompson just picks his spots and wins rounds. That seems really high for someone who only a few fights ago drew with the champ. I know most this sub will be on Till but with 3 of his last 4 going the distance i just don't think Till is going to win a point fighting contest with Wonderboy.
This is an intriguing stylistic matchup between two tremendous strikers.. Wonderboys Karate is one of the best in the UFC, he's been able to earn respect from his opponents inside the cage in fear of his striking game. Darren Till blew up on the scene after his destruction of Donald Cerrone. For me, after Wonderboys two fights with Woodley, I was interested to see how he'd do in his next fight against Jorge Masvidal.
This fight at UFC which I attended, was very interesting. That fight felt taylor made for Thompson, someone that'll give him space, stand and strike looking to exchange from the outside. It was a very close fight, but it was a fight once again Masvidal gave to much respect to Wonderboy in the pocket and stood at the exact distance Thompson wanted. Even though Wonderboy won that close decision victory, I didn't see anything of great substance from him. When Masvidal charged in, Thompson scrabbled awkwardly, which is something he's done in many of his past fights.
Darren Till on the other hand has terrific cage movement, great distance management with a wicked left hand. Till walks around over pounds, and will be roughly 15 to 20 or so pounds bigger then Thompson fight night.
That strength difference and the fact that Till won't give space to Thompson is going to be tough for him to overcome. Inside the clintch isn't somewhere Thompson's comfortable being, and with Till's strong Muay Thai game, he'll work Wonderboy in tight and up against the cage leaving less and less space for Thomspon to work.
With the home crowd behind him, I see Till winning this fight and pushing him even further up the rankings If you'd like to see my entire Prediction Show, check it out on my channel.. Lmao that was one of the worst breakdowns I've ever seen. You somehow did 20 minutes and had zero good analysis. Would be better off reading their UFC. Collecting while following others picks I'm sure because you definitely don't know enough about the sport to make your own.
People post paragraphs on here that have more substance than your 20 minute podcast. Wow you sound so salty My track record speaks for itself All good man, I respect your opinion.
But many people seem to enjoy my show.. Also my channel isn't all about me, it's about building a UFC handicapping community, which I've done. We all discuss upcoming fights and if you look at the picks bring made by me and the community members, we've all done very well in a short time.
But hey, all good man. Good luck on your bets today Who are you betting? Curious what book because according to fightodds. On my YouTube channel I do early betting strategy and Wonderboy vs Till was one of my plays I discussed and that was the odds and why I wanted to get in on Till sooner rather then later That decision was terrible for the sport.
Your call was Till dominating him, not skating out on the skin of his nuts due to a complete failure of judging. LOL - know one said dominate. But you trolls love to talk until you lose. You said that Till'd pressure WB up against the cage and win the clinch battle. Your prediction was laughably terrible and you fluked out a miracle. It's your bankroll longterm that'll suffer if you can't evaluate a fight for what it was.
LOL your comment makes you sound like a loser. How he won doesn't matter.. I just said he'd win. Lol Bam Bam Bam!! Welcome to Fight Club. I like your confidence. It'll be a fun fight to watch Let's see how it all pans out in the end. I feel like a good metric of the amount of public hypetrain money on Till is the sheer amount of people I've never seen before coming into this thread to bet on him.
If this one does end up on the mat, the huge advantage goes to Lee. A pair of very evenly matched South American fighters will step into the Octagon for what looks to be an intriguing match-up.
When you consider that Cannetti has lost all 3 of his fights by submission, you see how important it is that he stays on his feet and tries to box this one out. I see this one going the distance, with the slight nod to Rivas. Another fight that promises some fireworks, as these are two fighters who know how to pack a punch.
He will try to use his kickboxing skills to his advantage here. Reyes is unbeaten but is still very much an up and comer in MMA. A win here would certainly be a huge feather in his cap, and I think he gets that win by decision. Grasso comes into this bout with a record and 5 wins in her last 6 fights.